Climate Change talks celebrations premature

Some people were undoubtedly celebrating over the weekend following the unexpected agreement at the international climate negotiations in Cancun, and some might be nursing hangovers as a result. But were these celebrations worth it? I think the answer is that they were, at best, premature.

During last week's negotiations a report was released in the UK on the latest climate science making it clearer than ever of the need to keep global temperatures below a two degree centigrade rise. At Cancun the voluntary emissions reductions made by countries add up to a world much, much warmer than this.

If people were celebrating because there they think there is now a much better chance of closing the gap in emissions reductions ahead of next year's round of international climate talks in South Africa, they were being massively optimistic.

Any rational analysis of the political positions held by the main polluters suggests that there is a mountain to climb if the emissions gap is to be closed. The odds of achieving this aren't great but a slim chance of doing so exists. And whilst there is even the tiniest of chances we must, in my view, continue to fight (read Joe Simpson's book 'Touching the Void' if you want inspiration on fighting on despite the odds). 

What are the big three fights ahead of us?

• Firstly the emissions reductions pledges at Cancun are far too low. These all need to be substantially increased.  Not easy - but necessary.
• Secondly, although an agreement on governing finance for developing countries was made in Cancun there was no agreement on where the money should come from. This needs to be addressed urgently; a good starting point would be backing a Robin Hood Tax, a small transaction tax on currency transactions that would raise billions. 
• And thirdly, although there was some progress on forests, there remains the threat that the funds will come from rich countries offsetting their already meagre emissions reductions commitments - despite the fact that we need to save forests and cut emissions, not choose one or the other (closing the offsetting loophole is critical in so many areas).

Over the past 12 months Friends of the Earth has had a small team of staff working for progress on a strong and fair agreement at Cancun. Through the year they've attended many of the negotiations, written reports identifying solutions, lobbied, and carried out press work. In doing so they've worked closely with colleagues from Friends of the Earth International, the largest grassroots campaigning network in the world. Like others, they worked day and night in Cancun.

They weren't celebrating the results of Cancun because they are focussed on a bigger prize, a fair and scientifically credible binding global agreement. They are keeping the corks in the champagne bottles until there is something much bigger to celebrate.