Looking for the Churchill of climate change.

I wasn't there at the time.   But my understanding of the approach to the Second World War was that people were split into many different camps on whether and how to respond to the Nazi threat.  There were those who didn't think we should do anything because they didn't take the threat seriously, didn't believe the dire stories seeping out of Europe; or just thought the Britain would be untouched.  There were others those who believed the stories, saw the threat but baulked at the human cost of confronting the Nazis.  They hoped the Nazis could be persuaded to stop - or stop before the shores of Britain at least.  And there were those unsavoury British fascists who were actually sympathetic to the Nazis but often denied their butchery.  My generation can thank god that none of these groups triumphed. 

Another group which saw the Nazis for the existential threat they were, saw that they wouldn't go away, saw that it would cost dearly to confront them, but cost everything not to, got the upper hand.   This was symbolised by Winston Churchill, who became Prime Minister and led the UK through the war to eventual victory.  He has since become to many the quintessentially bold leader, with his bulldog looks, grim determination, brutally realistic but inspiring oratory - and a big cigar. 

It strikes me that attitudes to climate change in the UK are similar to those towards the Nazis in the 1930s.  Evidence of the problem is obvious for those with eyes to see and ears to hear - from the rapid melting of the Arctic icecap, to the epic floods of the last two years in Australia, Pakistan and Thailand.  And the UK's second summer this autumn.  Measured scientific bodies scream urgency.  The World Meteorological Organisation recently reported that greenhouse gasses are at their highest levels of the human era.  The Intergovernmental Committee on Climate Change reported that extremes of weather are increasing.  And the International Energy Agency warned the world is just five years away from irreversible climate change. 

Yet in the face of the gathering storm a few still don't believe or want to believe the evidence of climate change.  Others believe climate change is happening, but say humans can't be causing it.  Still others know we're causing it but don't think it will make much difference to them in their life time.  Then there are those that see threat, but are reluctant to act yet for fear of the cost - to their purse or principles.  But here's the difference with the approach to the Second World War.  Terrifyingly, we don't have the bold leader, the Churchill of Climate Change, anywhere in the western world. Or anywhere else.

Chris Huhne gave a strong speech at the Grantham Institute last week.  I don't agree with him on everything.  However we're lucky to have a serious, committed, intelligent and experienced Climate and Energy Secretary.  But he's not our national leader. And even he is desperately constrained by his view of the politically possible, in UK and abroad.    

But the scale and profundity of the threat of climate change demand national and international leadership of extraordinary boldness.   It's time for David Cameron, who rebranded his party on the environment, and claimed that he wanted his to be the greenest government ever, to step up.   I think he may be capable of it; he just doesn't think it's a vote winner right now, and the economy is his main concern.  But our kids will look back at the leaders of today and regard them as we were taught to view Neville Chamberlin and his kind - as the losers who failed to confront the Nazis and left us wide open to catastrophe from which Churchill then had to save us. 

 So, as another round of international climate negotiations gets under way in Durban, hamstrung by lack of national leadership in significant countries, it's worth asking what bold climate leadership by David Cameron might look like.  I suggest four features: 

• What he says:  Words do matter.  Witness the chilling effect of George Osborne's Tory party conference speech on business confidence in the UK's government's seriousness about cutting carbon.  Cameron needs to deliver a major speech very soon, telling the public just how serious climate change is, and readying the ground for much more concerted action.  A good time would be soon after Durban, building on whatever the outcome is or isnt.  
• What he does:   Of course actions matter massively, particularly where he directs taxpayers' money, and encourages private investment.  Cameron should direct much of the effort to escape from recession to building an environmentally sustainable - durable and stable - low carbon economy.   He will need to bang heads in his cabinet to achieve this.  Fine, that's what leaders do, even to their friends.   Concrete actions he could order include lifting the bar on the Green Investment Bank borrowing before 2015; lifting the arbitrary cap on the renewable energy Feed In Tariff scheme which has - until the government announced a cut - been one of the few sources of job creation in recent months;  launch a nationwide scheme to improve public transport, particularly buses, alongside efforts to promote electric car use to name just a few; and enforce a 70 mile motorway limit rather than allow the proposed 80 mile an hour limit to gather pace.
• Who he befriends:   He should invest effort in building alliances with other leaders who will join him in accelerating action.    His predecessor but one, Tony Blair, is now remembered for his misjudgements on Iraq; but that same boldness was applied to climate change on the international stage when he corralled the G8 leaders to talk climate, not just aid, trade and debt, at the Gleneagles G8 in 2005.  For all his talk of Greenness, Cameron's international lead on climate has not come close.   He could offer leadership right now, as the Durban conference proceeds, in urging the EU to push itself to bolder action to break the log jam - like unconditionally signing up to a second phase of the Kyoto Protocol.  This would swiftly move negotiations on and give the EU the high ground is has lost. 
•  Who he attacks:   There are people out there desperate to prevent serious action on climate change. The recent cynical release of a second batch of stolen emails from scientists at East Anglia, just before the Durban climate talks, is evidence.  Even within the ranks of the Conservative Party there are those like Nigel Lawson, who continue to obfuscate the evidence of climate change or argue to do nothing.  Cameron must tell them the deniers and the cynics firmly that they are on the wrong side of history and should shut up.  

 This is the kind of leadership we need from all country governments of course.  But the UK, which led the old industrial revolution, has an important symbolic and moral role in leading the new green industrial revolution.    And the UK has the world first of a Climate Change Act to build on.  There as so many reasons why Cameron is better placed than most to lead - and with that goes a heavy responsibility. 

 I think Cameron may actually be capable of this.   It's not where he's at right now.   The Autumn Budget Statement out today is likely to raise even more questions about his seriousness.   Even so, I invite him to become the Churchill of Climate Change.