How will the climate change in 2011

2010 brought a tiny step forward in international climate negotiations. It also brought devastating floods in Pakistan and Australia, as well as massive forest fires in Russia. This week Munich Re, one of the giant reinsurance companies, reported on the massive economic impact these extreme weather events are having and called for greater action in reducing emissions. Will 2011 bring great strides forwards in political negotiations and political action? Will it bring more extreme weather events?

The international climate negotiations in Cancun at the end of 2010 showed that the gap between what politicians say they want to achieve and what they are willing to deliver is very substantial. The European Union has said it may move to reduce its emissions by 30 per cent by 2020 from 1990 levels, the USA has pledged cuts of around four per cent and China has stated that it will reduce the carbon intensity of its economy which could lead to a peak in its emissions by around 2030. 

In late December Friends of the Earth published a report showing that in order to give a 70 per cent chance of avoiding a two degree centigrade average increase in global temperatures - the international political goal signed up to by politicians - it would require the EU to cut emissions by 60 per cent by 2020 (80 per cent by 2030), the USA by 75 per cent by 2020 (95 per cent by 2030), and China to peak its emissions by 2013.

Following the Cancun negotiations hopes have been raised for a global agreement in South Africa at the end of 2011, but the chance of getting a deal that will give a good chance of avoiding a two degree rise is close to non-existent. At best, and with lots of hard work and public pressure, we may get an agreement that gives a slim chance of avoiding two degrees and a reasonable chance of avoiding three.

Where does this leave us?

Firstly we need to remember that emissions reductions are only one part of the story, albeit the most important. There are other options which can reduce carbon concentrations in the atmosphere. And there are also poorly understood and potentially dangerous options for reflecting some of the sun's energy back into space.

In a briefing paper on geo-engineering published in 2009, Friends of the Earth said that chemically capturing carbon from the atmosphere and storing it underground in old oil and gas wells is likely to be necessary (so-called negative emissions). 2011 must see much more research into this option, including into limits on the amount of carbon that be captured and stored in this way. This will be much more costly than emissions reductions,  but politicians have dithered and delayed for so long that we probably have no choice now but to deploy this technology.

In terms of reflecting solar energy back to space more research is needed before deployment of these options can be seriously considered. But some further research is necessary because at some time in the future society may choose to deploy these in emergency situations, for example to prevent the irreversible melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

In short, in 2011 we may see some further progress in political negotiations and action, but not enough to prevent the need for accelerating research and development for the deployment of more expensive negative emissions options.

It is impossible to say with any certainty whether we will see more extreme weather events in 2011. Climate models certainly suggest that the trend is for more extreme weather events over coming decades, but predicting the weather for one year ahead is much more difficult. Unfortunately I suspect we will see more extreme weather events in 2011 - but I sincerely hope we don't as the impact on ordinary families can be horrendous.