Study reveals ExxonMobile's contribution to global warming - unique report paves the way for legal action

Climate Impacts in Wales briefing below

ExxonMobil, the world's biggest oil company, has caused some five per cent of global, man-made, climate changing carbon dioxide emissions over the last 120 years, new research by Friends of the Earth reveals today [1]. The study could prove vital in paving the way for compensation claims against companies by victims of climate change resulting from man-made pollution [2].

This is the first time that the historic contribution of one company to global climate change has been calculated, and has significant implications for ExxonMobil's legal exposure and its shareholders. The company is due to announce its fourth quarter and full year 2003 financial and operating results in the USA later today.

Climate change is widely acknowledged to be the biggest environmental threat faced by the world. Leading scientists warn that a million species face extinction because of global warming, and the UK Government's Chief Scientific Officer, Sir David King, describes climate change as a bigger threat than global terrorism.

Friends of the Earth commissioned two studies of ExxonMobil,- which trades as Esso in the UK. The studies showed the company and its predecessors, caused 4.7 to 5.3 percent of the world's man-made carbon dioxide emissions between 1882 and 2002 - through its operations and the burning of its products. The company's lifetime carbon dioxide emissions have been around 20.3 billion tonnes, about three times current annual global emissions from fossil fuels (and about 13 times annual US emissions).

UN scientists warned in 1996, that man-made pollution was having a discernible influence on the global climate. Seven out of the 10 worst years for ExxonMobil's emissions have occurred since this warning.

Friends of the Earth Cymru's director Julian Rosser said:

"This global warming report should send shivers through the boardrooms of oil companies across the world. For the first time, the long-term impact of one company on climate change has been identified and assessed. This brings closer the day when the victims of climate change can take legal action against ExxonMobil for the damage its activities have caused and will cause in the future. ExxonMobil and other oil companies should not stick their heads in the sand like the tobacco companies that knew the harmful impacts of their product and ultimately paid the price."

Peter Roderick, lawyer and Director of the Climate Justice Programme [3] said:

"This assessment is the best estimate so far of ExxonMobil's contribution to climate change. It shows how the company's emissions have significantly increased over the years as climate science strengthened. This is essential reading for those current and future victims of climate change who wish to seek compensation from the company."

Friends of the Earth chose ExxonMobil for an assessment because it has repeatedly attempted to undermine the scientific consensus on climate change and actively resisted attempts to limit carbon dioxide emissions through law.

Friends of the Earth is also part of the StopEsso coalition (www.stopesso.com/), which urges motorists to avoid filling up at Esso petrol stations.

Independent experts in the United States and New Zealand carried out the research. It involved adding up data from company annual reports and other sources on fossil fuels used and sold, calculating the emissions generated and feeding the results into an internationally recognized computer model. The research also shows the impact ExxonMobil-related emissions have had on global temperatures and the rise in sea level [4].

Report details:

Friends of the Earth commissioned independent experts to produce the two groundbreaking studies that establish the contribution ExxonMobil has made to climate change since its early days as the Standard Oil Trust in 1882. These are:

• Heede R. "ExxonMobil Corporation emissions inventory 1882-2002: methods and results, plus associated spreadsheets", Climate Mitigation Services, Snowmass, Colorado. Dec 2003. This study estimated the carbon dioxide and methane emissions from ExxonMobil's operations and the burning of its products.
• Salinger J. and Bodeker G. "Assessing the effects of CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions on atmospheric concentrations, changes in radiative forcing, changes in global mean surface temperature, and changes in sea level: a case study", National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd. Dec 2003. This study uses the results of the previous study to run a well-known climate model that calculated the contribution these emissions have made, and will make, to atmospheric concentrations of these gases, to increases in global average surface temperature and to sea-level rise.

The findings of these two studies and their potential implications are summarized in "Exxon's climate footprint: the contribution of ExxonMobil to climate change since 1882," also published by Friends of the Earth today.

The following briefings are also available from Friends of the Earth:

• the impact of climate change on the UK
• the impact of climate change on UK regions
• timeline showing how Exxon's emissions have grown as climate science has become stronger

Notes

[1] www.exxonclimatefootprint.com/ - or call Friends of the Earth press office to pre-view

[2] Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace and affected individuals have been joined by the cities of Boulder, Oakland and Arcata in suing the US export credit agencies for funding fossil fuel projects under the National Environment Policy Act. www.climatelawsuit.org/

Sheila Watt-Cloutier, Chair of the Inuit Circumpolar Conference (ICC), announced in December 2003 that the ICC is considering filing a claim with the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights against the United States for the harm global warming is causing to the Inuit. The claim, if filed, will aver that, by failing to curtail its greenhouse gas emissions, the United States has violated the Inuit's human rights, including their rights to property, culture, and subsistence. www.inuit.org/index.asp?lang=eng&num=244.

[3] Dozens of organisations and lawyers have joined together to form the international and collaborative Climate Justice Programme (CJP), including Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace and WWF. It supports enforcement of the law around the world in a campaigning context to combat climate change and associated human rights abuses, in the run-up to the start in 2005 of official negotiations to make further cuts in greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. www.climatelaw.org/

[4] ExxonMobil's estimated contribution to:

• increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in 2002 (above pre-industrial levels): 4.8-5.5%
• total attributable temperature change since 1882:- 3.4-3.7%
• sea level rise: 2%.

Impacts of climate change in Wales

How will climate change affect the UK?

• The UK climate has warmed by nearly 0.7°C over the last 300 years, with half of that occurring in the 20th century. By the 2080s average annual temperature across the UK is predicted to rise between 2C and 3.5°C.
• Summer heatwaves have been more frequent and their frequency is predicted to increase further. By the end of the 21st century, two out of every three Augusts may be as hot as the unusually hot August of 1995. Very cold winters will be increasingly rare with fewer frosts and cold spells.
• Winters have become wetter, with more of the rain falling in heavy downpours. It is likely that this trend will continue, further increasing the risk of flooding. In most parts of Scotland snowfall could decrease by 40 - 60% by the 2050s and by as much as 60 - 90% by the 2080s.
• Summers have become drier. It is predicted that in parts of the south and east of the UK, summer rainfall may decrease further by 30% by the 2050s. In summer, soil moisture could be reduced by 20% or more over large parts of England by the 2050s and by 40% or more by the 2080s.
• The sea level around the UK coastline has risen. Sea levels will continue to rise relative to most of the UK's shoreline particularly in south east England. Extreme high water levels, due to a combination of storm surges, high tides and increasing mean sea level, are predicted to become more frequent with a higher risk of coastal flooding and erosion.

Predicted Impacts of Climate Change in Wales:

The UK Climate Impacts Programme predicts that by 2080 Wales will experience:

• greater warmth all year round by 1.1-2.9°C
• more rainfall in winter by 7-24%
• less rainfall in summer by 7-14 %
• greater annual rainfall by 2-9 %
• a rise of sea level of 18-79 cm
• a higher mean wind speed by 1-4 %
• more variability from year to year - the number of extreme years will increase
• more frequent and more violent storms - more rain in intense storms
• more drought years by 10 %
• more very severe gales by 10 %

Water supply and quality

There may be difficulty providing adequate water supplies for parts of Wales during dry summers by 2025. The water industry is reported to face significant challenges. Eighteen of the 43 supply zones could go into water deficit over the next 25 years in dry summers.

More water is likely to be needed for irrigation and cooling.

Summer supply may become more dependent on increased storage of winter rain. This is likely to lead to increased pressure for more areas of Wales to be permanently flooded for reservoirs.

Water quality in rivers could suffer, due to less water being available to dilute pollutants.

Coastal area and flooding

A significant amount of coastal land in Wales is less than 1 m above current sea level. When rising sea level is coupled with storm surges at sea of up to 1.9 m, and large waves during storms, the frequency of flooding of low-lying areas is expected to increase greatly. There may be a ten-fold increased risk in flooding by 2090. Much low lying coastal land in Wales is critical for its importance economically, for habitation, agriculture, tourism, or for its natural habitats.

Biodiversity

The range and frequency of some species may increase (e.g. nightingale, kingfisher), whilst others are likely to decline (e.g. arctic-alpine plants, dipper, char, northern footman moth and bird cherry). Arctic-alpines such as the Snowdon lily may be lost. The coastal and lowland zones, estuaries (Dee, Severn), saltmarshes and sand dunes (Morfa Harlech) will be impacted by storms and sea level rise, and in many cases managed retreat may be too expensive.

Important raised bogs at Cors Erdrreiniog and Cors Tregaron could dry out without artificial maintenance. Heather moorland, blanket bog and oak woodland are all vulnerable to changes in soil condition. River temperatures track air temperature. Summer warmth and drought might reduce fish growth; species would be expected to migrate following their temperature ranges. Warmer waters carry less dissolved oxygen, and low river flows in dry summers may have greatly concentrated products of organic decomposition and of agrochemicals. Blue-green algal blooms, such as those thriving in the lake created by the Cardiff Bay Barrage, may become more frequent.

Agriculture

The fertilising effect of carbon dioxide will increase plant growth and interact with temperature rise and different patterns of rainfall and evapotranspiration. Cereal crops may benefit, while grain yields may decrease.

Forestry

Forests, which cover 12% of Wales, will be damaged by an increased frequency of storms and high winds, and the spruce aphid may survive better over warm winters to cause more damage the next year; forest fires may be more frequent in dry summers.

Business

Shifts in weather can threaten power lines, and less summer rain will reduce the performance of hydro-electric plants. Old factory buildings may not be adequate to resist more stormy weather.

References

This briefing draws heavily from the following organisations and their publications:

UK Climate Impacts Programme: Set up by the Government in 1997, the UKCIP is funded by the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and based at the University of Oxford. UKCIP co-ordinates and integrates an assessment of the impacts of climate change at a regional and national level. It is part of a wider programme of research into climate change being undertaken by the DEFRA. www.ukcip.org.uk/

Hulme, M., Turnpenny, J., Jenkins, G., (2002), Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Briefing Report

Changing Climate Challenging Choices: the Welsh Scoping Study, February 2000 Report: initiated by the National Assembly for Wales, and conducted by a team co-ordinated by the Institute of Environmental Science, University of Wales Bangor, and including the Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, Bangor, ECOTEC Research and Consulting, and the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, in collaboration with the UK Climate Impacts Programme.