Climate Change & Peak Oil

Lead contact details: Dennis Twist, [email protected]

CLIMATE CHANGE
No change. The CO2 in the atmosphere is still rising steadily, though the rate of increase hasn't changed in the last 5 years (possibly due to a combination of lower fuel demand in the current economic situation and energy-saving measures). In October, a preliminary report was issued by a group of academics headed by a physicist at Berkeley (California) which confirmed that the earth's temperature has indeed risen over the last century. The temperature graph produced by the Berkeley Group agrees closely with those produced by the UK Met Office, NASA and the (US) National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration. The Berkeley group work was partly financed by the Koch Brothers, infamous climate change sceptics and owners of large coal enterprises.
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE
The global temperature for 2010 was either the highest yet reached or the equal highest or the next highest, depending on the source (NASA and the NOAA in the USA, the Met' Office in the UK).
In February 2010 Professor Phil Jones (Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia) said that post-1995 global warming was not statistically significant (i.e. had not reached the 95% confidence level) - a comment which was used by climate change sceptics to bolster their case. In June this year, Jones reported that, with the benefit of a further year's data, the 95% confidence level has been reached so that global warming this period can be said to be proven. The relatively small rise in global temperature over the last few years has been taken by the sceptics as evidence that global warming is a myth.
PEAK OIL
Peak Oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of oil production is reached, after which it will decline. However, the date on which this happens depends on the definition of 'oil'. If it is defined as 'non-OPEC conventional', then the peak has already been reached but if other non-conventional sources (e.g. deep water, tar sands, 'fracking') are included then the peak is a long way off. These sources are costly to exploit, but if the oil price is high enough (and the environmental concerns overcome) then the oil will be produced. As for OPEC sources (which are mainly conventional), the peak hasn't yet been reached if reported reserve figures are to be believed. Another factor is that OPEC might restrict supply in order to keep the price high. Overall, 'Peak Oil' doesn't seem likely to be reached in the near future, but the oil produced will be costly and the price high.