Durban climate talks: 24 hours to close the gap

Andy Atkins

08 December 2011

Just before Christmas last year Friends of the Earth published a report which identified how much more pollution the planet could take if we want a high chance of avoiding dangerous climate change. The answer was not very much.

Yet right now at the international climate talks in Durban there appears to be a reluctance to fully recognise the scale of the challenge ahead of us, even more reluctance to show leadership in cutting greenhouse gas emissions, and increased efforts to avoid responsibilities through dodgy offsets.

With just over 24 hours to go in the negotiations where does this leave us?

If we want a high chance of avoiding a two degree rise in global temperature, which all leading politicians have said we must do, we need huge cuts in global emissions. Our research shows that, based on 1990 levels, the USA would need to cut its emissions by around 95 per cent by 2030, the EU by 80 per cent, and China would need to peak its emissions in the next couple of years and then reduce them. These figures are far in excess of what politicians are willing to even contemplate.

Does this mean that dangerous climate change is now certain? No it doesn't.

The following five steps, if taken soon, could get us on the right path and still give us a chance:

• The EU should commit, ideally today, and without strings attached, to take on new reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. The reductions have to be much higher than the 20 per cent by 2020 the EU currently has as a target. The best we can probably hope for is 30 per cent which would at least be a step forward, but 40 per cent cuts are very possible and closer to what the science tells us is needed. Making cuts at this level would wean Europe off its dangerous addiction to fossil fuels, improve energy security and put us at the forefront of developing new low-carbon industries and jobs.
• President Obama has to open the door to higher reduction targets for the US, the second biggest polluter in the world. We all know the political situation in America is not conducive to great leaps forwards on climate change but, like in the EU, there are self-interested energy security and economic development reasons for greater action.
• The finance and technology needed to help developing countries adapt to climate change and grow their economies without excessive use of fossil fuels needs to start flowing. This assistance, which should be provided by rich, developed nations and managed by the UN, will help to provide clean energy to the billions of people in the world still without access to electricity.
• Once rich countries have agreed new legally binding emissions, and money and technology flows are happening in practice rather than just in theory, then developing countries, especially the bigger polluters, will need to agree to begin negotiations towards binding carbon limits for their economies that would kick-start in 2015.
• Significant research effort needs to go into techniques to take carbon out of the air. Our research suggests that even more ambitious commitments to cut emissions will not be enough on their own to tackle climate change. We need these new techniques to compliment carbon pollution cutting efforts if we want to avoid climate chaos.

These five steps would ensure that we are at least moving in the right direction. Time hasn't run out yet. And human beings can be amazingly ingenious, especially with our backs against the wall.