Dash for gas is high-carbon dead end street

Tony Bosworth

14 March 2012

In the 1990s, a revolution took place in UK energy. The arrival of North Sea gas transformed electricity generation away from coal. The 'dash for gas' (as it became known) led to over a third of electricity being generated from gas within a decade.

I've spent the last few weeks getting to grips with what's happening at the moment in UK electricity generation, and the numbers show that the UK is on the brink of a second 'dash for gas'. This could be disastrous for household energy bills and tackling climate change.

Our new analysis shows that the Government, egged on by the Big Six energy companies, is giving permission for huge amounts of new gas-fired power plants. Yet more gas risks sending the UK down a high-carbon dead-end street, dumping ever-rising energy bills on households as worldwide gas prices continue to creep up.

Do we need gas?

It might seem counter-intuitive but, in the long term, electricity use is likely to rise not fall to tackle climate change. That's because  cars will be powered and homes will be heated by electricity - which can be zero-carbon, unlike gas and oil.

We'll still need some gas generation, mainly to cope with the peaks when demand is higher than can be met from renewable energy. But by 2030 gas will have a much smaller role to play in our energy mix.

Shifting away from gas for electricity generation is essential if we're to cut carbon emissions per unit of electricity by 90% by 2030 as the Government's independent advisers the Committee on Climate Change recommend.

Building lots of new gas-fired power stations would, at the very least, make that target much harder to achieve.

But that's exactly what is happening.

The Government projects that by 2020 we'll need 4.9 gigawatts (GW) of new gas-fired electricity generation, enough to power nearly five million homes. But it has already given permission for much more than this, with more still coming through the planning system.

The Government has already given consent for over 16GW of new capacity, over 60% of which is from the Big Six energy firms. Not all of this will be built but, even using conservative assumptions, the new capacity could be almost 9GW - almost double Government projections - most of it online by 2016.

And these aren't just Friends of the Earth figures - leading energy experts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance have forecast 11GW of new gas online by 2016.

Gas prices have soared over the last decade, and are likely to continue to rise in coming years. So more gas in the energy mix could mean bad news for households as well, with energy bills continuing to rise.

Just say no

To get Britain off the fossil fuel hook we must exploit Britain's huge renewable energy resources, and say no more gas plants unless there are tough standards limiting their carbon emissions.

New Energy Secretary Ed Davey has reaffirmed his commitment to this Government being the greenest ever. Turning the country away from a high-carbon, high bills dead-end street would be an excellent place to start.