Davey should have folded on fracking, not raised the stakes

Tony Bosworth

14 December 2012

Starting a blog by quoting a Kenny Rogers song seems a surefire way to lose credibility. Johnny Cash is fine, but not Kenny. However his song 'The Gambler' get into my head as an annoying earworm yesterday and it contains a couple of lines that should be resonating with Ed Davey at the moment.

    Every gambler knows that the secret to surviving
    Is knowing what to throw away and knowing what to keep

Poker is about looking at the odds of success, the potential prize and whether the reward justifies the risk. I don't know if Ed Davey plays poker but, if he does, then he doesn't seem to have translated that key lesson into the day job. His decision yesterday to allow fracking to start again in the UK is gambling on a risk we don't need to take.

Fracking isn't the answer to our energy problems

It risks big problems for the local environment and human health. As the UN Environment Program recently reported, the relatively brief history of shale gas exploitation "already includes instances of water contamination ... and negative health impacts". They could also have added increased air pollution and the demands on often scarce water resources, highlighted as major concerns by the European Commission. Little wonder then that communities up and down the country have pledged to fight fracking. They don't want the same problems in the UK.

It's unlikely to have any real impact on energy bills. Shale gas advocates like Boris Johnson point to the US, saying gas prices are much lower there since they started drilling shale gas. That's true, but what they don't say is that at the low prices they point to, drillers were losing money. Nor do they say that prices are rising again. And finally they don't acknowledge that most experts don't see shale gas cutting energy bills significantly in the UK. Going for fracking to cut energy bills is wishful thinking.

By underpinning George Osborne's dash for gas, fracking for shale gas is likely to help keep us hooked on dirty fossil fuels for decades. It may be cleaner than coal but it's still a fossil fuel. If we want to meet our legally-binding climate change targets, we have to cut back on gas generation, using it as a back-up to renewables, not as the main source of power.

Shale gas is not the best energy source for boosting the economy and creating jobs. Of course investing in fracking will create jobs but experience in the US and elsewhere suggests caution. The industry's jobs claims are often over-stated and there are potential big downsides for existing key sectors of the economy such as - in Lancashire - tourism and agriculture. If we want to create jobs, it's better to invest in clean energy solutions which create three to five times as many jobs for the same money.

It's not as if Mr Davey is running out of options and has to gamble on fracking. The UK has huge resources of renewable energy from the wind and waves (back to Kenny - paraphrasing his hit with Dolly Parton, is this because we're an 'Island in the Stream'?). This clean British energy, alongside a major programme of cutting energy waste, would be a much better bet for keeping the lights on, avoiding huge rises in energy bills and tackling climate change.

Looking at the cards in his hand, Ed Davey should have folded on fracking, not carried on betting.

Instead, he should go all-in on supporting clean British energy. The prize is greater, the risks are lower and the odds are better.