© Chelsea Green

2052 by Jorgen Randers

In our fast changing world it's a brave man that makes predictions as far ahead as 2052. But Jorgen Randers is an old hand at this; he was one of the authors of the famous book Limits to Growth published in 1972. Based on an early computer model, the book suggested that if the trends up to 1972 were to continue unchanged "the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next 100 years", with a resulting "sudden and rather uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity". Forty years on, and aided by an updated computer model, Jorgen Randers revisits these predictions in his new book, 2052.

2052 is a worthwhile - albeit dense - read, although Randers' pessimism about humankind's likelihood of rising to meet the challenges ahead is at times uncomfortable. He warns about undue optimism stating "to this day, six billion people are being misled into believing that there are no natural constraints and they can have it all because human ingenuity will come to the rescue." Instead he says "I believe the world will be sufficiently stupid to postpone meaningful action." more ...

The Energy Bill will give more power to the Big Six

This week MPs debated the Government's new Energy Bill. It should be a golden opportunity to develop clean energy and break the stranglehold of the Big Six energy companies on the UK power market. But the Coalition's proposals as they stand could make it virtually impossible for community groups to set up renewable energy projects, and could hand the Big Six even more control than they have already.

The Government has spurned pressures to establish a simple system, used in Germany, of fixed payments through Feed-in Tariffs that would offer an even playing field to community energy schemes as well as multinational corporations. Thanks to campaigning by organisations like Friends of the Earth, the UK did introduce a Feed-In Tariff in 2010. But it is limited to small-scale projects up to 5MW and the Coalition's current plans won't increase this. Incentives for larger renewable energy schemes like wind farms and solar arrays may only be available for very big power companies that can trade directly on electricity markets. more ...

© Istock

A Green Christmas Carol part two

Which future shall Scrooge choose in 2013?

In part one of a Green Christmas Carol, Scrooge dug his hob-nailed boots in and refused to act on climate change.

Here is part two, in which Scrooge cheers up and changes his ways...

January: A perfect storm for biodiversity: Badger-cull sniper knocked into dying bee-hive by illegal fox hunt in ash die-back wood. Outraged Daily Telegraph and Daily Mail join with NGOs in successful campaign to save UK biodiversity.

February: Twitter news. @pontifex is BLOCKED by @james_delingpole after Pope tweets about new wind turbine on Vatican roof. Later, new rules to give communities a financial stake in windfarms sees Delingpole invest in a 12 turbine farm surrounding his farm. "Wind is clean and it works. Anyone who disagrees with me is a *#&$%*", he tweets.

March: Budget day. A savage winter, high gas bills and a need for "shovel-ready" projects to jump-start the economy sees George Osborne shock-announce a multi-billion pound investment programme for insulating homes. "This will boost jobs, cut bills and reduce our dependence on Qatari gas". Ed Balls is speechless.

more ...

© iStock

A Green Christmas Carol part one

In Charles Dickens' A Christmas Carol, Scrooge is given the chance to change his future. But what (great) expectations and choices do we have for the coming year?

Like Scrooge, we've been shown different futures. A world of ever-more severe climate disasters, or a world where we act to prevent this from happening. We need to choose which one we're going to take.

Here's a two-part vision for 2013 - first, where Scrooge continues to ignore all the evidence in front of him, and second where a newly-green Scrooge changes his ways.

Which 2013 will we get? Let's go all out for the latter...

In which Scrooge is visited by the Ghost of Climate Change to come...

January- DECC announce an immediate Review of solar FITs, to be followed by an April Inquiry into the Review of solar FITs and a June Assessment of the Inquiry of the Review of solar FITs. In the interim, FIT rates will be set by an octopus in a glass box. "It's part of our new 'unreasonableness' test" says Minister. "If a company is not tough enough to cope with arbitrary changes to its financial circumstances every month, then it's clearly not cut out for business in today's ultra-competitive global markets. We are helping to weed out the weak early". more ...

© Alison Walters

4 reasons not to build the Bexhill to Hastings Link Road

This year the government gave approval for a 3 mile stretch of road near Hastings to open up one of the most tranquil valleys in the South East of England for housing and out of town development.  We campaigned long and hard against this scheme - as well as its predecessors - the Eastern and Western Hastings Bypasses. For over ten years I worked with local people who believed this project would not solve the area's transport problems, nor its economic ones. We used all the avenues possible including attempting to take a Judicial Review against the decision. It's hard to swallow, but none of this worked and the bulldozers are expected to move in in a few weeks. In fact tree felling has already started.

 The project is flawed because: more ...

© istock

Water and electricity does mix (despite Ofwat's red tape)

One of the great things about working at Friends of the Earth is that we get to meet lots of interesting people. Some of them show a real commitment to doing their bit to save the planet.

A few weeks ago, I met Ben from Yorkshire Water, a company who are at the sharp end of dealing with some of the effects of climate change, notably flooding and drought. But the processes involved in giving us clean water supply and cleaning up the delightful stuff we send them in return consumes stacks of energy.

Ben told me that Yorkshire Water's first priority is to cut their energy use as much as they can. By improving their processes and by enabling and educating us all to reduce our water consumption they can slice a huge chunk off their carbon footprint.

But Yorkshire Water also wants to generate their own clean, green renewable energy. Remember all that lovely stuff we flush down our toilets? They're converting that through anaerobic digestion (AD) into gas to be used in a combined heat and power (CHP) system. Waste not, want not, heh?

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Davey should have folded on fracking, not raised the stakes

Starting a blog by quoting a Kenny Rogers song seems a surefire way to lose credibility. Johnny Cash is fine, but not Kenny. However his song 'The Gambler' get into my head as an annoying earworm yesterday and it contains a couple of lines that should be resonating with Ed Davey at the moment.

    Every gambler knows that the secret to surviving
    Is knowing what to throw away and knowing what to keep

Poker is about looking at the odds of success, the potential prize and whether the reward justifies the risk. I don't know if Ed Davey plays poker but, if he does, then he doesn't seem to have translated that key lesson into the day job. His decision yesterday to allow fracking to start again in the UK is gambling on a risk we don't need to take.

Fracking isn't the answer to our energy problems

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After the dash for gas, the headache

This is going to be a short post, for two reasons.

Firstly, because I am feeling a tad delicate after indulgence at our work Christmas do last night.

Were things slightly less foggy, I could here embark upon an analogy which would compare clumsily the state of my bonce with the massive rise in energy bills to which the Chancellor's dash for gas is likely to expose us.

I'd start by talking about a new report by the Committee on Climate Change. It goes on the offensive over silly talk about "green costs" on bills - patiently pointing out that a bit of front-loaded investment now is a considerably wiser economic path than letting fossil fuel prices soar and/or frying the planet. (I previously blogged about the 2011 edition of this report). more ...

© Christian Payne

Cameron to defend green record

At approximately 4.45pm this afternoon David Cameron will spend three quarters of an hour being grilled on the environment by the Liaison Committee - a group of senior MPs.

I'll be watching online and tweeting about it because this is the first time since he became Prime Minister that we'll hear Cameron put on the spot about his Government's environmental record.

In the past Cameron has given some truly compelling green speeches. Who in the environment movement would disagree with much of this belter from 2008?

But since assuming power in 2010 his green silence has been deafening.

For more than two years Cameron has batted away questions about his "greenest government ever" pledge with half-hearted boasts about two stuttering initiatives - the Green Investment Bank and the Green Deal.

They're vitally important projects, but both are at big risk of falling flat and virtually unheard of in the real world. more ...

© iStockphoto.com

A chill wind from the Chancellor

Another bitterly cold night in Yorkshire last night. And this morning, a gas bill on the mat, with a reminder that prices are going up again.

In Britain, a killer combination of expensive gas and poorly insulated housing makes cold homes a misery for millions. Last winter, there were 24,000 extra winter deaths in England and Wales alone; the World Health Organisation estimates that 30 per cent of these deaths are attributable to cold homes.

This is completely preventable - with a major programme of insulating homes. It would boost the economy, create jobs, cut gas imports, slash bills and save lives.

But George Osborne won't do it. He's even cut the main Government-funded fuel poverty scheme - Warm Front will stop completely from March next year.

more ...