© Chelsea Green

2052 by Jorgen Randers

In our fast changing world it's a brave man that makes predictions as far ahead as 2052. But Jorgen Randers is an old hand at this; he was one of the authors of the famous book Limits to Growth published in 1972. Based on an early computer model, the book suggested that if the trends up to 1972 were to continue unchanged "the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next 100 years", with a resulting "sudden and rather uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity". Forty years on, and aided by an updated computer model, Jorgen Randers revisits these predictions in his new book, 2052.

2052 is a worthwhile - albeit dense - read, although Randers' pessimism about humankind's likelihood of rising to meet the challenges ahead is at times uncomfortable. He warns about undue optimism stating "to this day, six billion people are being misled into believing that there are no natural constraints and they can have it all because human ingenuity will come to the rescue." Instead he says "I believe the world will be sufficiently stupid to postpone meaningful action." more ...

The Energy Bill will give more power to the Big Six

This week MPs debated the Government's new Energy Bill. It should be a golden opportunity to develop clean energy and break the stranglehold of the Big Six energy companies on the UK power market. But the Coalition's proposals as they stand could make it virtually impossible for community groups to set up renewable energy projects, and could hand the Big Six even more control than they have already.

The Government has spurned pressures to establish a simple system, used in Germany, of fixed payments through Feed-in Tariffs that would offer an even playing field to community energy schemes as well as multinational corporations. Thanks to campaigning by organisations like Friends of the Earth, the UK did introduce a Feed-In Tariff in 2010. But it is limited to small-scale projects up to 5MW and the Coalition's current plans won't increase this. Incentives for larger renewable energy schemes like wind farms and solar arrays may only be available for very big power companies that can trade directly on electricity markets. more ...

© Alison Walters

4 reasons not to build the Bexhill to Hastings Link Road

This year the government gave approval for a 3 mile stretch of road near Hastings to open up one of the most tranquil valleys in the South East of England for housing and out of town development.  We campaigned long and hard against this scheme - as well as its predecessors - the Eastern and Western Hastings Bypasses. For over ten years I worked with local people who believed this project would not solve the area's transport problems, nor its economic ones. We used all the avenues possible including attempting to take a Judicial Review against the decision. It's hard to swallow, but none of this worked and the bulldozers are expected to move in in a few weeks. In fact tree felling has already started.

 The project is flawed because: more ...

Davey should have folded on fracking, not raised the stakes

Starting a blog by quoting a Kenny Rogers song seems a surefire way to lose credibility. Johnny Cash is fine, but not Kenny. However his song 'The Gambler' get into my head as an annoying earworm yesterday and it contains a couple of lines that should be resonating with Ed Davey at the moment.

    Every gambler knows that the secret to surviving
    Is knowing what to throw away and knowing what to keep

Poker is about looking at the odds of success, the potential prize and whether the reward justifies the risk. I don't know if Ed Davey plays poker but, if he does, then he doesn't seem to have translated that key lesson into the day job. His decision yesterday to allow fracking to start again in the UK is gambling on a risk we don't need to take.

Fracking isn't the answer to our energy problems

more ...

After the dash for gas, the headache

This is going to be a short post, for two reasons.

Firstly, because I am feeling a tad delicate after indulgence at our work Christmas do last night.

Were things slightly less foggy, I could here embark upon an analogy which would compare clumsily the state of my bonce with the massive rise in energy bills to which the Chancellor's dash for gas is likely to expose us.

I'd start by talking about a new report by the Committee on Climate Change. It goes on the offensive over silly talk about "green costs" on bills - patiently pointing out that a bit of front-loaded investment now is a considerably wiser economic path than letting fossil fuel prices soar and/or frying the planet. (I previously blogged about the 2011 edition of this report). more ...

© Christian Payne

Cameron to defend green record

At approximately 4.45pm this afternoon David Cameron will spend three quarters of an hour being grilled on the environment by the Liaison Committee - a group of senior MPs.

I'll be watching online and tweeting about it because this is the first time since he became Prime Minister that we'll hear Cameron put on the spot about his Government's environmental record.

In the past Cameron has given some truly compelling green speeches. Who in the environment movement would disagree with much of this belter from 2008?

But since assuming power in 2010 his green silence has been deafening.

For more than two years Cameron has batted away questions about his "greenest government ever" pledge with half-hearted boasts about two stuttering initiatives - the Green Investment Bank and the Green Deal.

They're vitally important projects, but both are at big risk of falling flat and virtually unheard of in the real world. more ...

© iStockphoto.com

A chill wind from the Chancellor

Another bitterly cold night in Yorkshire last night. And this morning, a gas bill on the mat, with a reminder that prices are going up again.

In Britain, a killer combination of expensive gas and poorly insulated housing makes cold homes a misery for millions. Last winter, there were 24,000 extra winter deaths in England and Wales alone; the World Health Organisation estimates that 30 per cent of these deaths are attributable to cold homes.

This is completely preventable - with a major programme of insulating homes. It would boost the economy, create jobs, cut gas imports, slash bills and save lives.

But George Osborne won't do it. He's even cut the main Government-funded fuel poverty scheme - Warm Front will stop completely from March next year.

more ...

© Friends of the Earth

Where's the Pesticides Plan?

As we approach the end of No Pesticides Use Week I find myself wondering when we will get to see the Government's new plan on the sustainable use of pesticides.

more ...

© istock

Tesco and the rest - 9 busy years to curb supermarket behaviour

Success in our long fight to stop the supermarket bullies

This week has been a major success for food justice campaigners - with the announcement that the  new Grocery Code Adjudicator going through its final stages in Parliament will be able to fine supermarkets for non-compliance. 

Friends of the Earth has long been fighting with others for such measures, to ensure that farmers and workers - here and overseas - can maintain sustainable and viable livelihoods when dealing with hugely powerful large corporations. 

Tesco et al - the long fight to stop the supermarket bullies. more ...

© Friend s of the Earth

Review of 2012

What a year 2012 was.

Jessica Ennis, Mo Farah, a diamond jubilee and even news of a royal baby - so much to talk about; so much joy.  It's also been a busy year for environmental issues, although sadly not quite so joyful, nor with the same public profile.

Here's a quick review of 2012 with a heads-up for what could be a good 2013.

Climate and Energy

Researchers now think that once global temperatures get above 1.6 degrees the Greenland ice sheet may begin irreversible melting, sending sea levels many meters higher over following centuries. Unfortunately scientists now tell us that we are on the path to a 4-6 degree rise. To have any chance of staying below 2 degrees, emissions need to peak by 2020 and we need to start taking carbon out of the air.  The World Bank has warned us that a 4 degree rise "is so different from the current one that it comes with high uncertainty and new risks that threaten our ability to anticipate and plan for future adaptation needs. The lack of action on climate change not only risks putting prosperity out of reach of millions of people in the developing world, it threatens to roll back decades of sustainable development". more ...

© Eskinder Debebe

Half way through - a view from on the ground in Doha

The scientific reports that show the devastating impacts of climate change and its consequences for the planet and its people could fill even the huge Doha Convention Centre. Yet rather than grappling with the need for urgent action, developed countries have come here with broken promise after broken promise.

The Doha talks are critical. They will decide what the world will do about climate change over the next decade and lay foundations for a new global climate treaty from 2020-2030.

The first week of heated debate has focused primarily on the following 4 key issues:

The Kyoto Protocol

In Durban, it was agreed that there would be a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. It is now, in Doha, that rich industrial countries must fulfil this promise by setting emissions reduction targets. But, at the end of week one, many are already wriggling out of this agreement. more ...

© Dave Gunn

Government failing on nature

Here's a quick test for you.

When you hear the term 'greenest Government ever' do you guffaw or beam with pride at what's been achieved since 2010?

Perhaps the term is a turn off? I know many people who are weary of debates about 'GGE' - there, I've used an acronym to ease your pain.

Many don't know what to think. For all, help is at hand with the Nature Check report from 39 leading nature conservation and animal welfare organisations - all members of Wildlife and Countryside Link, including Friends of the Earth.

Nature Check helps us tell if Prime Minister Cameron's pledge - made soon after he swept to power in spring 2010 - is on track.

Nature Check also sets out why being on track matters.

Nature Check has something for everyone with traffic light scores given for everything from farming, water, flooding and marine issues to animal welfare, public access to open spaces and the changes to our planning system.

Protection of whales, elephants and other endangered species also gets a score (green).

Some things do score well and the future may be as green as Messrs Cameron and Shapps pledge. more ...

© UNclimatechange

Welcome to hell - climate talks and climate reality

Welcome to hell.

This could easily be the sign outside of the international climate talks - currently at Doha - which are characterised by painfully slow negotiations, political manoeuvrings and posturing, and limited steps both forwards and backwards. But, if the spate of recent research reports is correct, the sign could as easily be posted at the entrance to Planet Earth well before this century is out.

But despair not - although these reports make grim reading, as I show below, it is not yet too late to avert climate chaos, although the clock is ticking and time is beginning to run out.

The World Bank report - Turn down the heat, why a 4^oC world must be avoided  - tells us that "even with the current mitigation commitments and pledges fully implemented, there is roughly a 20 percent likelihood of exceeding 4°C by 2100. If they are not met, a warming of 4°C could occur as early as the 2060s". more ...

© Ulet Ifansasti

Make It Better: a new campaign for products that don't cost the Earth

A few weeks ago I visited the Indonesian island of Bangka. About the size of Yorkshire, Bangka's a mite as islands go, but a giant in one important respect: its contribution to the global tin trade. Intensive mining on the island, with its smaller neighbours and surrounding waters, is almost entirely responsible for making Indonesia the world's largest exporter of tin. That might be good for some miners and make those in charge of government and mining company coffers smile, but it comes at a staggering cost to the environment and the many other communities that depend upon it.

I knew before my research trip that mining had made a mess of Bangka, but I was stunned by how visible this is. It's bearing the brunt of a 'tin rush' that is trashing forests, devastating coral reefs and causing scores of deaths and injuries every year. You can see the testimonies of some of the affected people I met here, and also read about the situation in this article from this weekend's Guardian. more ...

© www.CGPGrey.com

Is marine renewable energy good for wildlife?

Surely it is too good to be true that that building thousands of wind turbines at sea could actually benefit wildlife and fisheries? All that concrete, steel and electrical wires would surely cause havoc?

Not so, says leading marine biologist Professor Martin Attrill of the Marine Institute at Plymouth University. Done well, he says, it should be possible to avoid significant negative impacts and instead may even create new opportunities for wildlife to flourish. Also the alternative, he says, is much worse as it means greater levels of climate change, ocean warming and acidification.

Martin and I agreed that this positive message needs to be heard loud and clear. So Martin - together with academic colleagues at Plymouth and Exeter - has agreed to write a series of briefings for Friends of the Earth on marine renewable energy and marine biodiversity.

As the Business Green website report, the first of these briefings is an overview of current research, providing an overall picture of the impact of marine renewables on wildlife and fisheries that has been missing until now. more ...

© W. W. Norton & Company

Book review: Full Planet, Empty Plates by Lester Brown

You might want to sit down before reading Lester Brown's new book Full Planet, Empty Plate because it is a fact based horror story waiting to happen.

In it he pulls together research on many, but not all, of the major threats to feeding a growing population.

He tells us there has been a fivefold increase in global meat consumption since 1950 and how fish consumption has also soared, with a third of fish now coming from fish farming.  He says these trends are continuing as developing countries move towards a more western diet; and a third of the global annual grain harvest and most of the soybean harvest is now destined for inefficient meat production. Not only do we need to reduce consumption of these products he says, but when we do eat meat or fish we should be consuming those that are much more efficient at turning feed into protein, for example carp instead of salmon, chicken instead of beef.

He laments the folly of using grain to power our cars rather than to feed people. A third of the US grain harvest now goes to produce ethanol for cars rather than feeding people or restocking the dangerous low global food stores. He rightly asks, why aren't we moving faster on producing electric cars instead? more ...

© iStock

Dirtier than Coal?

So, the joint Friends of the Earth, RSPB and Greenpeace report "Dirtier than coal?" - about the burning of trees in power stations - has been getting quite a bit of attention, including reports on the BBC News, the Today Programme, BBC World service, Radio 4's Material World, The Times and the Telegraph.  

What is it actually about?

The report is based on research commissioned and published by the Department for Energy and Climate Change about the climate impacts of burning trees for energy in power stations.
The (now outdated) theory was that when you cut down and burn trees then this is carbon-neutral because the carbon released into the atmosphere when burning a tree is eventually re-absorbed into a new tree growing in its place.

Unfortunately the reality is that it can take decades or longer for the carbon to be reabsorbed from the atmosphere. This creates a carbon debt. more ...

© Friends of the Earth

Green economics and food - a new, irresistible recipe for progress!

Why the Green economist should not ignore food

If, like me, you eat food, may find it surprising that there is little in the burgeoning literature, webinars and debates on the Green Economy to suggest we eat anything.

There is scant reference to the potential economic gains from a greener food and farming system (aside from the occasional reference to investment in 'greening agriculture'). This is not good and this blog aims to show why the green economy advocates needs to learn to love food. more ...

© npower renewables

Wind power - helping keep the lights on

This month UK wind generation hit a new record of 4.2 Gigawatts - great news for the UK's renewable electricity future.

With predicted increases in both offshore and onshore wind capacity, by 2020 this figure could quadruple - more good news I say. But some people worry that, because wind's output is variable, will the electricity system be able to cope with sudden drops in wind generation?

This article looks at UK's electricity generation data to see where there might be problems. I deliberately picked January 2012 - a month where demand was very high, and where there might have been trouble with wind: for example a high-pressure system lasting for several days.

Here's the data for wind:

Sure enough, there was a big fall in wind power for one 5 day stretch, and other days where power was also low. On other days, generation often topped 3GW - displacing more polluting power generation. Wind power never went to zero, but it did go very low. more ...

© Vladimir Yaitskiy

Nuclear question - UK could stop Ukraine going green and extend its nuclear dependency

If we're not having one, then neither are you: time to grow up?

What a week in the fight for clean British energy: scandal erupted when Conservative Party members were exposed colluding with James Delinpole, in his obsessive efforts to wipe wind-farms off the map, and Ed Davey's statement in the Commons yesterday about energy companies fixing gas prices demonstrated once again the urgent need to overhaul our energy system.  

Not only are elements of this government trying to undermine a green future here in the UK, they are also threatening green hopes in Ukraine. Among all the energy market mayhem, you'd be forgiven for missing it, but in addition to messing up our own clean energy karma, the UK may actually back a huge European loan for the Ukrainian nuclear power sector.

There's life in the old dogs yet - but at what cost?

 Ukraine has 15 operating nuclear reactors, twelve of which are designed to finish operations before 2020. But rather than hanging up its nuclear boots, the country has applied for international funding for 'safety upgrades' that would in fact keep some of its reactors operating well beyond. more ...

© Hadley Centre

Climate special - review of news, views, and events

This month's review of news, views and action at Friends of the Earth is a climate special. Not least because we've had the mad, bad and dangerous happen in just a few short weeks. But, amid this there are also glimmers of hope. Next month will be just as frenetic - more on this below.

Mad

When you or I apply for a job we have to demonstrate that we have the skills and knowledge to do it. Apparently this doesn't apply in the Dept. of Energy and Climate Change where Minister John Hayes said we don't need any more wind farms. Madness, does the man know nothing about climate change? Friends of the Earth's response was, of course, very polite. In fact, one might argue, what the man most needs is a kick up the backside.

On top of this, Friends of the Earth revealed that the Government's dash for gas - championed by George Osborne - could wreck the chance of the UK delivering on its legally binding climate targets. Osborne has been giving even more hand-outs to fossil fuel companies as Dave Powell demonstrates. more ...

© Ian Homer

Don't panic - why even Ofgem are relaxed about blackout scare

For people who had just announced - according to the Daily Mail - that the UK faces 1970's style power blackouts in just three years' time, the team at UK energy regulator Ofgem were remarkably relaxed when I met them last week.

They had even prepared a nice presentation for us to take away. Why were they looking so calm?

According to Ofgem's Electricity Capacity Assessment many of Britain's remaining coal fired power stations must close thanks to a European directive to reduce emissions of dangerous air pollution such as sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Recently they have literally been burning through their remaining allotted generating hours more quickly, so will have to close earlier than expected. Added to that, once built, the low cost of renewable electricity is making gas fired power stations less profitable.

This means the UK's electricity capacity margin, that's how much more generating capacity we have above the peak national demand might drop from 14% to 4%. Peak is usually just after Coronation Street during the Winter months, when everyone turns the kettle on.

Cue: Aaaarrrrrrggghh the lights are going to go out! more ...

The Draft Energy Bill - Britain's Energy Future lost

As a child, I was quite into Meccano. It was my first encounter with paradigm shifts. I could make a great car. But sometimes the mood changed. I would turn it into a boat, and then a plane. Invariably, the end product - whatever it looked like - neither rolled, sailed, nor flew. So it is with the Government's Draft Energy Bill.

As Parliament went into recess, the Energy and Climate Change Select Committee (ECC) published its savaging of the Draft Energy Bill; cautioning MPs not to underestimate "...the scale of the challenge that the Government is facing in preparing a Bill that is fit for purpose in time for introduction in the autumn..."

As MP's return from the Party conference season, the Secretary of State for Fossil Fuels, George Osborne, continues to set out his policies with a promise of a 'generous' tax break for shale gas. Meanwhile a variety of foreign firms play pass-the-toxic-parcel with the UK's nuclear programme. Parliament is faced with a shambles, not a strategy.

But another Energy Bill is possible... more ...

© Ian Jackson/Friends of the Earth.

Join the zombie roads revolution

This is a guest blog by Stephen Joseph, Executive Director of the Campaign for Better Transport. Stephen thinks that misguided plans for new road building will only succeed in reviving the campaigns against them. 

Einstein suggested that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results. The Government's latest attempt to revive massive new road building would certainly fall into that category.

The last time the Government planned to tarmac over the country was in the 1990s. Like then, Campaign for Better Transport will support and help coordinate those who want to both protect their local area and who can see a better way.

As little as a year ago, it seemed like road building was out of fashion. But, as a result of lobbying from business, last year's Autumn Statement starting the ball rolling on a road building programme that now looks set to be worth tens of billions. more ...

© ExplainingTheFuture.com

Book review - Seven Ways To Fix The World

Will crowd-sourcing bring down capitalism? Will 3D printers - that can print everything from energy-efficient concrete bricks to replacement parts for your washing machine - spell the demise of the global trade in throw-away consumer products? Will women's empowerment lead to a world of cooperation rather than testosterone fuelled competition? These are just some of the future possibilities explored in Christopher Barnatt's excellent new book 'Seven Ways to Fix the World' and on his website.

They're also some of the questions we'll be asking in a new 3 year research programme that we're about to embark on (more on this below).

In his new book, Christopher Barnatt calls for a rebirth of local economies. more ...

© Pete Riley

World Car Food Day?

Today is World Food Day and ministers are meeting in Rome to discuss what can be done about rapidly rising food prices worldwide.  Droughts this summer in the US and Eastern Europe have sparked sharp peaks in global food prices, rising by 10% in July compared to a year earlier. Staple commodities hit record highs in August and September. Maize and wheat were up 25%, and soybean oil rose 17%. But these deadly fluctuations cannot be blamed on bad weather alone. more ...

Is Osborne's "dash for gas" scuppering Hull's green economy?

[This blog was written by my colleague Simon Bowens, I'm posting it because he's on a train to Hull...]

"Abandon hope all ye who enter here", wrote Dante in his poem the Divine Comedy, inscribing it above the gates of Hell.

But, in Hull, hope has been growing following a 2011 memorandum of understanding between Siemens and ABP Ports to develop a world-class manufacturing facility for the offshore wind industry.

Planning permission has been approved to build the facility which will ensure that, finally, offshore wind sites (which could produce 40% of our power demand by 2030) will be built with components made in Britain creating jobs and skills for a potential world market.

more ...

© Friends of the Earth

Ten reasons to care about land right now

It can be hard to get excited about land. It's not very sexy is it?  But with crops withering in the fields and food prices in the headlines, have you thought about the land your food comes from? Does it matter? These ten things may help convince you why it's worth you getting involved in what happens to land - apart from just walking on it.

1.       Besides possible real estate on Mars and a few bizarre islands being expensively generated in Dubai, they're not making it anymore.. it's a finite thing. Like life really... it needs some care after centuries of abuse.

2.       We do all know, deep down, that we rely on land - for most of the food we eat, the clothes we wear, the wooden table we put together badly last year,  the condoms we may be using, and so on..

3.       Most of us are being greedy, using too much land. Europe's 'land footprint' is one of the largest in the world (on average we each use  1.3 hectares compared to Indians with less than 0.4 hectares!) more ...

© Conservative Party

Call it the George Osborne effect

At Conservative party conference on Monday, Chancellor George Osborne cheerfully unveiled his fifth (fifth!) tax break for fossil fuels in the space of just a few months.

To be fair, this was in the main one of his less ghastly speeches for the environment of recent years. He said something nice about renewable energy and didn't appear to have gritted teeth or be kicking a kitten in the face whilst doing it.

But lo and behold, yet more Government support for those poor struggling paupers of the oil and gas industry. They've not had a bad seven months: more ...

Osborne puts his foot on the gas again

George Osborne's announcement yesterday of a consultation on tax cuts for shale gas was unexpected, with the Department for Energy & Climate Change seemingly knowing as little of the detail as those beyond Whitehall.

It's interesting to compare the Chancellor's speech to that of Energy Secretary Ed Davey, a couple of hours earlier to an industry conference in London.

Mr Osborne wants to put his foot on the gas so "that Britain is not left behind as gas prices tumble on the other side of the Atlantic".  But Mr Davey said he wants to be more patient than the "excited British commentators ... touting shale gas as a silver bullet to bring Britain to a new age of cheap energy". But the Energy Secretary still says he hopes to be able to give the industry the green light.

Ed Davey said "industry analysts do see shale as a rather different proposition here than in the US". Why is this? The reasons include:

·         different geology in Europe which means the gas could be more costly to get at; more ...