FOE Briefing: Flood Alert - Climate Change in the UK

Flood Alert - Climate Change in the UK

BRIEFING
Flood Alert - Climate Change in the UK

“High river flows present a risk of flooding to about seven million people in the UK - one of our most damaging and costly natural hazards. Any increase in the frequency and/or magnitude of river flooding would have major economic implications, particularly at a time when further and widespread floodplain development is anticipated ”.

DETR (1999) Indicators of Climate Change in the UK

INTRODUCTION

The turn of the millennium saw devastating floods in Venezuela where heavy and prolonged rains caused mudslides killing up to 30 000 people. Just days later tornado-force winds up to 200 kph (120 mph) tore through Western Europe killing over 100 people and causing damages estimated at 10 billion euros. In France some 360
million trees were uprooted or snapped in two leaving foresters to face losses of $4 billion. Meanwhile two French nuclear reactors were flooded by storm waters damaging important equipment. In the UK thousands of acres of low-lying farmland were inundated after the worst floods to hit Somerset in living memory[1].

Worldwide, more people die in floods than through any other natural disaster. This is reflected in the current crisis facing Mozambique. Hundreds of thousands of people have been made homeless by severe floods as a year's rain fell in the space of four days. The number of dead remains unknown.

Although not on the same scale, floods in the UK also endanger lives, homes, businesses and farmland and cause tremendous stress and disruption. In England and Wales an estimated 1.6 million homes and businesses are at risk from flooding [2].
Flooding is a natural hazard but it is influenced by human activities such as land use changes,river engineering and urbanisation. And now there is the added threat of climate change.

Climate change from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas could mean more floods in the future. Severe rainstorms and heavy flooding are predicted to happen more often as climate change takes hold, both in the UK and around the world.

Individual flooding events cannot be attributed directly to climate change but do give us an indication of what may lie in store. Floods in central Europe in 1997, for example, led to the loss of more than 100 lives and damages in excess of £4 billion [3].

As the Government publishes its UK programme to tackle climate change, can the public be assured that as much as possible is being done to reduce the risks of flooding through sensible planning and measures to cut greenhouse gases?

CLIMATE CHANGE AND RIVER FLOODS

The world is warming. Globally 1998 was the warmest year since records began in 1860 while in the UK 1999 was the hottest year since 1659[4]. Average surface temperatures are some0.6°C higher than they were 120 years ago [5]. As a result glaciers worldwide are retreating and sea levels are rising, largely through the thermal expansion of ocean water. Scientists now agree that greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels are partly responsible for this warming.

Many impacts are predicted for a warmer world,and in particular climate change is expected to change precipitation (rainfall) patterns. Rainfall will increase in some places and decrease in others bringing the threat of floods, and conversely, droughts. For example, attempts to model flooding in the River Severn and Thames in a 2080 wetter world indicate an increase in magnitude and frequency of flooding [6].

It is too early to tell whether recent climate change has affected trends in UK floods, partly because of large natural variations in rainfall patterns from year-to-year and decade-to-decade. And climate-driven changes can be difficult to distinguish from the effects of land-use changes,water abstraction and development [7]. Nevertheless recent major flood events in the UK raise the question of whether floods are becoming more frequent or severe.

UK FLOODS

In October 1999 the Environment Agency launched its three year £2 million flood campaign to raise public awareness of individual flood risk[8]. The campaign was launched largely in response to what have become known as the Easter 1998 Floods, in which 5 people died and insured and uninsured losses were estimated at£350 million [9].

“Five people died directly or indirectly as a result of the floods. Many people were, without warning, put in fear of death or serious injury. They lost their homes and personal possessions,suffered massive disruption to their lives and livelihoods, and some are still without permanent homes six months later. Some victims are experiencing ill health, chronic anxiety and other symptoms of traumatic stress.” [10].

During the Easter floods heavy rain caused riversto rise at rates twice that previously recorded and to record heights [11]. The resulting floods were the worst on record for an area of 5000 square kilometers bounded by Bedford in the east,Evesham in the west, Peterborough in the north and Oxford in the south. Around 4500 families lost their homes, some of them permanently. Northampton and Leamington Spa were particularly affected. Record breaking floods hit the river catchments of the Leam, Avon, Nene,Great Ouse and Cherwell.

MAFF ministers have set specific priorities for the Environment Agency in the light of the Easter 1998 Floods [12] which rang alarm bells about our vulnerability and lack of preparedness for floods.

Floods have hit again since the Easter ones. In October 1998, 3000 square miles of England and Wales were flooded. In Herefordshire, more than 2000 homes were cut off by flood waters for two days, and the River Wye at Hereford was 5.5m above its winter level [13]. In 1998 alone floods killed 21 people in the UK.

FLOOD PROTECTION AND PLANNING

Protection against flooding can never be absolute.
The Ministry of Agriculture Fisheries and Food(MAFF) has responsibility in England for policy on flood defence and coast protection and administers grant-aid for capital defence schemes. The Secretary of State for Wales has the equivalent responsibility in Wales. The Environment Agency exercises general supervision over all matters relating to flood defence in England and Wales and is responsible for disseminating flood warnings. In Scotland the equivalent role is carried out by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency.

The aim of Government policy on flood defence“is to reduce the risks to people and to the developed and natural environment from flooding”. The Environment Agency has flood defence powers and duties among its wider responsibilities and is charged by the Governmentto advise planning authorities on development and flood risk matters. Its role includes influencing local authorities to guide new development away from flood risk areas, and ensure that any increased flood risks created by new development are paid for by the developer,and not the public at large [14] .

The Environment Agency's flood protection responsibilities [15]:

Supervision - duty to exercise a general supervision over all matters relating to flood defence (includes land drainage and water level management)

Flood warning - responsibilities to disseminate flood warnings directly to the public

Maintenance and operations - powers to maintain and operate flood defences and associated structures to reduce the incidence of flooding

Improvements - powers to build defences to reduce the risk of flooding including the replacement of defences reaching the end of their effective life

Regulate and Influence - consent is needed from the Agency for certain works that may affect watercourses and flood defences.

Throughout England and Wales a considerable amount of development has taken place on river floodplains - the land next to rivers which floods when river banks are overtopped. Consequently people and property in these areas are already at risk from flooding. The possibility of increased flooding from climate change highlights the need to safeguard floodplain areas.

Typical flood defence measures include flood walls or embankments, the raising of land above flood levels and increasing the capacity of river channels to carry flood waters. Flood defence expenditure (river and coastal) by the Agency is in the order of £260 million annually [16]. This is about 40 per cent of the Agency's annual budget. The EA manages £7.5 billion of flooddefence assets and have expressed the view that an additional £30-40 million expenditure is required annually for appropriate development and maintenance [17].

FLOOD RISK MAPS

The Environment Agency has been charged with preparing flood risk maps for the whole of England and Wales as part of its survey duties under Section 105 (2) of the Water Resources Act 1991. These map the boundary of the 1 in 100 year flood (also know as a 1% probability flood). Such a flood is expected to occur just once in 100 years.

The purpose of the maps is to inform planners and developers about flood risks so as to guide new development away from such flood risk areas and to build awareness of existing flood risk. While development within the boundary should be limited, it may be allowed in adjacent areas. In the context of climate change this is particularly relevant. Since more rainfall could result in more floods, new developments outside current flood risk areas may become at risk in the future. There is the possibility then that these maps could give a false sense of security.

Until very recently these maps were not in the public domain. Copies of the 1999 Indicative Flood Plain Maps are now available. The maps,at a scale of 1:10,000, each show an area of land 5km x 5km and are available at A1 plan size or A3 (reduced scale) plan size. A national set of these maps costs £22,000 for the A1 Scale and£8,000 for the A3 scale [18]. The Agency also publishes leaflets which include local maps of areas at flood risk

The Agency's Action Plan for Flood Defence assures that:

“We will ensure that there is a fuller understanding and assessment of the potential impacts and associated risks of climate change on flood defence activities” [19].

Given the difficulty of anticipating the localchanges that climate change will bring these maps cannot be expected to guide planning decisions in the light of climate change. Clearly new development should not take place in flood plains. Additionally, the threat of flooding from climate change creates a powerful incentive for government action to cut greenhouse gases.

REGIONS AT FLOOD RISK

One of the reasons why the Easter Floods were so damaging was because many towns and villages flooded had not been identified as at high risk. Additionally flooding occurred at those places that were defended because the floods were more extreme than the systems were designed to defend against. The return periods were well in excess of 100 years. The official inquiry concluded that the existing systems for monitoring rainfall and river flow were inadequate for forecasting extreme events.

In the past couple of years studies have started to look at what wetter winters could mean for the UK [20]. Additionally, the Welsh Office,Scottish Office and DETR are funding programmes to investigate the more general impacts of climate change in the UK. So far this UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) has published reports for North West and South East England, Scotland and Wales [21].

To predict future rainfall patterns climate scientists analyse past and present patterns. There are significant variations in annual rainfall patterns over the British Isles with greater total rainfall occurring in western areas and over higher ground. While winter rainfall in England and Wales remained quite constant during the 20thcentury [22], it is worth noting though that two of the three years with the highest proportions of winter rainfall occurred in the 1990s (1990 and 1995) which was also the warmest decade since records began.

One scenario examined by the UK's Climate Change Impacts Review Group (CCIRG)suggests that there will be 10 per cent more rain falling in the UK by 2050 [23].
The first regional UKCIP study released in December 1998 focused on the North West. It predicted an increase in winter rainfall of 6-14%by 2050 [24].

For Scotland the UKCIP98 climate scenarios indicate that by 2080 rainfall will increase by between 3%-17% in summer, 7%-21% in winter.

A recently released report on climate impacts in Wales estimates that flooding events will be between 10 and 50 times as frequent by 2090 [25]

The report for the South East provides a detailed illustration of possible impacts [26]. In this region summer rainfall could be much lower causing droughts, but intense thunderstorms could bring flooding.

By 2080 it is predicted that for the South East winter rainfall will increase by 20% . An increase in frequency of locally intense storms will cause an overloading of drainage systems and local flooding. Water quality problems may result from soil erosion following such intense winter rainfall. Flooding of the Medway, Arun and eastern Rother would result in high financial losses because of the high value of the region's property. Insurance costs are likely to rise where the risks of flooding increase and property values may be affected.

Flood defences protect approximately 90% of the region's rivers but many developed floodplains are protected by schemes that were designed on the basis of historic records. With climate change they will no longer offer the same level of protection.

There is intense pressure to build new homes in the South East on green field and brown field sites in floodplains. The threat of climate change underscores the Environment Agency's advice against further development in the floodplain.

CONCLUSIONS

The Independent Review of the Easter floods concluded that much greater effort was needed ineducating people about the risks of floods and what to do in the event of a flood. In addition it was recommended that development in flood plains and surrounding areas should be strictly controlled to reduce flood risks.

Governments can improve flood defences and warnings but they cannot stop flooding all together. Nevertheless they can help to reduce people's vulnerability to floods by sensible planning and through tackling climate change. The possibility of more frequent and more damaging floods as the climate changes provides a powerful incentive for the Government to reduce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions.

It is time for joined-up thinking across Government departments. While the Environment Agency improves our preparedness for flooding, the DTI, the Treasury and DETR must ensure the right policies to bring about a 20% cut in carbon dioxide emissions by 2010 as promised in Labour's Election Manifesto .

In MAFF's words, “Taxpayers have a right to expect that public funds are spent effectively and efficiently” [27]. We also expect Governments to stick by their Manifesto commitments.

FLOOD FACTS

*    People who live or work in flood risk areas are more at risk from flooding than fire.
*    Six inches of fast flowing water can knock you off your feet; two feet of water can float a car.
*    A major flood in London could cost the UK £30 billion in damages alone with long term implications for the city's dominance as Europe's financial centre.

WHAT YOU CAN DO...

*    Contact Floodline 0845 988 1188 to find out if you live in a flood risk area.
*    Write to John Prescott, Secretary of State,at the DETR, urging him to keep Labour to its manifesto promise to cut CO2emissions by 20% by 2010.
*    Write to your local authority outlining why they should resist pressure from developers for new development in flood plains.
*    Write to your insurance company and ask them how they are trying to minimise risk by working with planners, builders and home owners to make homes as resilient as possible to flooding. Ask them to press the government to take action on dangerous climate change.

REFERENCES

[1]Various news reports: Storms led to nuclear accident, Guardian 6.1.00; Somerset floods raise anger level, Times 6.1.00.

[2] Environment Agency (2000) Environment and Flooding, a supplement of the Agency's flood awareness campaign.

[3] Environment Agency (1998) An Action Plan for Flood Defence. Bristol: Environment Agency.

[4]UK Meteorological Office, pers.comm.

[5] IPCC (1996) Climate Change (1995) The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.

[6] Reynard, N.S., Prudhomme, C. and Crooks S.M. (in press). The flood characteristics of large UK rivers: potential effects of changing climate and land use.

[7] Robson, A., Reed D., Jones, T. (1999) Trends in UK Floods. Presentation at meeting of British Hydrological Society 3/11/99.

[8] Environment Agency Press Release. Over a million households are at risk from flooding. Is yours one of them? 18 October, 1999.

[9] Independent Review of Easter 1998 floods(1998). Final Assessment by the IndependentReview Team. Peterborough: Environment Agency.

[10] Independent Review of Easter 1998 floods(1998). Op cit.

[11] Environment Agency Press Release,Independent Review of Easter 1998 floods, 1 October 1998.

[12] MAFF (1999) Interim High Level Targets for Flood and Coastal Defence and Elaboration of the Environment Agency's Flood Defence Supervisory Duty. London: MAFF.

[13] Environment Agency press release. Glenda the Giraffe launches major flood awareness campaign for Hampshire, 15 October 1999.

[14] Environment Agency. Policy and Practice for the Protection of Floodplains. Bristol:Environment Agency.

[15] Environment Agency (1998). An Action Plan for Flood Defence. Op cit.

[16] Environment Agency (1998) An Action Plan for Flood Defence. Op cit.

[17] Independent Review of Easter 1998 floods(1998). Op cit.

[18] Letter dated 23.2.00 from Martin Whiting,Environment Agency to Friends of the Earth.

[19] Environment Agency (1998) An Action Plan for Flood Defence. Op Cit.

[20] DETR (1999) Indicators of Climate Change in the UK. London: DETR.

[21] UKCIP website http://www.ukcip.org.uk

[22] DETR (1999) Op cit.

[23] UK Climate Change Impacts Review Group(1996) Review of the Potential Effects of Climate Change in the United Kingdom, Second Report.London: HMSO.
[24] Sustainability North West (1998). Changing by Degrees: The Impacts of Climate Change in the North West of England, 1998. Manchester.

[25] The National Assembly for Wales (2000).Wales Changing Climate Challenging Choices.The impacts of climate change in Wales from now to 2080. Summary Report. February 2000.Bangor: Institute of Environmental Science.
http://www.bangor.ac.uk/ies/wales-en.pdf

[26] Wade, S., Hossell, J. & Hough, M. (Eds.)(1999) The Impacts of Climate Change in the South East: Technical Report, WS Atkins,Epsom, 100pp)

[27] Ministry for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food(1993). Strategy for flood and coastal defence in England and Wales. London: MAFF.