Archived press release

Crucial World Climate Summit Starts Monday 2nd November

28 October 1998

Lacrimosa dies illa Sorrowful that day
Qua resurget ex favilla When from the dust will arise
Judicandus homo reus Guilty man to be judged

A crucial world climate summit begins in Buenos Aires on Monday November 2nd. The summit will be known as COP IV (the Conference of Parties). The details of the discussions will be technical and complicated. But a successful outcome is vital to the future security of the planet. Failure to stop climate change will produce disastrous effects across the world.

This briefing note:

. explains what global climate change means
. sets out what its effects may be
. explains the Kyoto agreement (from last year) to cut global greenhouse gas emissions
. sets out some of the key issues to be discussed at the BA summit.

WHAT IS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE?

“Greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere block infrared radiation from escaping directly from the Earth's surface to space. The main greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, water vapour, ozone, methane,nitrous oxide, and the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Apart from CFCs all of these gases occur naturally,producing a natural greenhouse effect that keeps the planet some 30 degrees centigrade warmer than it would otherwise be - essential for life as we know it.

But levels of all key greenhouse gases (with the possible exception of water vapour) are rising as a direct result of human activity. Emissions of carbon dioxide (mainly from burning coal, oil, and natural gas), methane and nitrous oxide (due to agriculture and changes in land use), ozone (generated by the fumes in automobile exhausts) and CFCs (manufactured by industry) are all increasing. As the“blanket” of greenhouse gases gets thicker, the climate will get warmer, as a man gets warmer when he puts on an overcoat. This is not just the view of environmentalists. It is the conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the body of scientists advising world governments for last year's Kyoto summit.

WHY IS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE BAD NEWS?

Rises in average global temperatures are likely to lead to rising sea levels and more and more extreme

weather events. There is already some evidence that this is happening. Over the last 30 years, the number of extreme events such as floods, droughts, storms and heatwaves has trebled. Although no specific weather event can definitely be attributed to climate change, 1998 has been a year of weather extremes, including

. Floods in Bangladesh (more than two thirds of the country under water, at least 600 dead), India(in West Bengal, where more than 1,500 people died, Assam and Uttar Pradesh), Russia(50,000 homeless in Eastern Russia), China (2,000 dead, and an economic cost of about $24 billion), and Kenya (86 people dead in North-Eastern Kenya and more than half a million cut off)
. Storms in Canada (January saw the worst ice storm in memory), and Peru (floods and mudslides caused $1.2 billion worth of damage)
. Heat waves in Southern Europe (and July/August heatwave in the Mediterranean claimed more than 80 lives), and the Eastern and Southern United States (124 died from heat-related illnesses in Texas and Florida, the economic cost was estimated at £3.8 billion for the two states
. Fires in Indonesia (more than 1000 forest fires in February and March) and Mexico (10,000 fires in May left cloud haze and cinders over most of Southern Mexico).

In future years rising sea levels could see whole countries, such as the Maldives, disappear under water.

WHAT ABOUT BRITAIN?

This will be bad news for Britain too.

More winter rainfall is predicted for the whole of the UK, but especially for the South (up to 10% more by 2050). In the summer, there should be less rain in the South in the summer but more in the North.Drought in the southeast and flooding in the northwest might become more common. By 2020, it should on average be 1.2 degrees centigrade warmer than during the period 1961-1990. This is equivalent to a 200 km northward shift in climate.

This will have a huge effect on Britain's flora and fauna, and we could be in for unpleasant surprises.For example, blood-sucking ticks are on the increase. Ticks are favoured by climate change as they like mild winters and warm summers. They can harbour unusual fatal diseases, such as Crimean Congo Haemorrhagic Fever, which is expected to reach the UK soon. Warm weather also favours various house pests such as cockroaches, fleas and mites.

Wetlands would be adversely affected by droughts, threatening many bird species. Erosion of coastal habitats is already happening in East Anglia and reducing the number of breeding birds. 10% of nature reserves in the UK (National Nature reserves and Sites of Special Scientific Interest) occur near sea level on the coast. Mudflats and salt marshes, both of which are important bird habitats, are threatened.For example, three fifths of the UK redshank populations nests in salt marshes. A report by the Worldwide Fund for Nature predicts that rising sea levels could see 40% of the Essex marshes flooded within 50 years, and 70% of the East coast of England within 100 years.

Higher temperatures result in more evaporation, so more water will be lost from reservoirs. Warmer weather will mean increases in public and agricultural demand for water. Between 1991 and 2021,water demand in the south and the east is expected to more than double, with up to half of the increase due to climate change.

Urban air pollution will be aggravated by higher temperatures, which will be particularly serious for

asthma sufferers.

Storms and high winds will become more common. A UK Government commissioned report predicts that mean winter wind speeds in southern England could rise by 7% by 2050 over the average for 1961-90.

WHAT ARE GOVERNMENTS DOING ABOUT IT?

The Kyoto Climate Summit last year was a historic international agreement, because it recognised the reality of climate change, and the need for co-ordinated action to fight it. But the Kyoto agreement set a low target. It required a 5.2% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2012, from 1990 levels. The scientific consensus is that a 60% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions will be needed by the middle of the next century if dangerous climate change is to be avoided. The Kyoto agreement also contained a number of important loopholes, which are discussed in this briefing.

Even so, there is enormous political opposition to the Kyoto agreement in the United States. The US target is only a 7% reduction. But the Republican majority in the Senate, backed by the fossil fuel and car lobbies under the banner of the Global Climate Coalition (Exxon, Ford, Mobil, Chevron, Texaco,Amoco, etc), is determined to prevent ratification. If discussions in Buenos Aires break down, the chances of the US refusing to implement the Kyoto agreement would increase.

The world's rich industrialised countries emit far more than their fair share of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The US alone accounts for one fifth of the world's total, and annual emissions per person in the US are twenty times those in India. Action by the richest countries is therefore essential if climate change is to be tackled. In the long run, large developing countries such as China and India will need to be involved too. But to use negotiations with developing countries to stave off action in the developed world is unacceptable.

The main means by which we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions are well known. They are:
. switching from generating electricity from fossil fuels to renewable sources (wind, wave, solar,etc)
. increasing energy efficiency in industry and in households
. cutting car use.

Contrary to the arguments of the Global Climate Coalition, such measures could stimulate national economies and create new jobs. FOE research has shown that measures to achieve the Labour Government's goal of a 20% cut in CO2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2010 could create 230,000 new jobs.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN BUENOS AIRES?

The BA summit will see difficult negotiations on a number of key areas. They include:

1. Carbon Trading

“Carbon trading” is an arrangement where countries producing too much CO2 could buy the right to emit from countries producing less than their permitted limit under the Kyoto agreement.Russia in particular, because of the collapse of its economy, will produce far less CO2 than its Kyoto limit. If the US can simply buy this “hot air”, it could avoid any domestic action to cut its own emissions. The result could even be an increase in total global emissions, the very opposite of what the Kyoto agreement was meant to achieve.

“Sinks” are natural resources, such as forests, which absorb CO2. Some countries, including the United States, want the Buenos Aires summit to agree that they can pay for forests in developing countries, and offset this against their own targets, once again reducing the need for domestic action. But the science of “sinks” is still unclear. The Intergovernmental Panel of scientists needs to research the issue further, before any decision is made about what contribution they could make to achieving the Kyoto targets

3. Clean Development Mechanism

The CDM is a system set up under the Kyoto agreement under which developed countries can contribute to their emissions targets by promoting environmentally-friendly technology in the developing world. Some countries, such as Japan, are pressing for nuclear power to qualify as clean technology under the CDM. The CDM will also have to be independent, transparent in its workings, and strictly verified and enforced.

4. World Bank

A key decision at the summit will be which international institutions will control the funding mechanism for the CDM and supervise the system of carbon trading. One front-runner is the World Bank, which has a record of backing environmentally-unfriendly fossil fuel ventures throughout the developing world. Between May 1997 and March 1998, the World Bank lent$3.85 billion dollars to fund fossil fuel projects, which will eventually produce 1.4 billion tons of CO2. The Bank is also considering another $5 billion in loans for 33 further fossil fuel projects,which would produce 4 billion tons of CO2 over their lifetimes. Since the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, almost one in five dollars lent by the World Bank for fossil fuel projects went to promote coal and diesel-fired power plants in China.

5. Review of Commitments

The summit will see a review of existing commitments by (particularly industrialised) countries to tackle dangerous climate change. The scientific consensus is that these commitments are not adequate and there will therefore be pressure to move towards stronger targets than those set under the Kyoto protocol. There will also be a debate about any limits which should apply to developing countries. Opponents of the Kyoto protocol in the United States are trying to make action by the US contingent on targets being set for developing countries. Friends of the Earth believes that new commitments should be based on the principle of “carbon justice” - in the long run permitted greenhouse gas emissions per head should be equal between all countries.Currently the US emits 20 times more CO2 per head than India.

FRIENDS OF THE EARTH

Friends of the Earth International is a network of more than 50 groups from all around the world, from Bangladesh to Nigeria, from the UK and US to Brazil. We will have a major presence at the BA summit from beginning to end. We will also be co-ordinating our campaign in the UK from FOE England/Wales/Northern Ireland's HQ in London. Our campaigners and experts will be easy to contact in BA and London, and will be available at all times for briefing, technical advice, comment and interview.

Detailed Briefing Notes on all aspects of climate change and the BA summit are available from the Friends of the Earth Media Unit in London.

If you're a journalist looking for press information please contact the Friends of the Earth media team on 020 7566 1649.

Published by Friends of the Earth Trust