Archived press release

Climate change pollution from aircraft set to soar

29 November 2002

Climate changing pollution from aircraft set to soar by 350% and the rest of UK plc will have to make up for it

The UK's record as a leader on tackling climate change will be "dealt a hammer blow" if the Government proceeds with plans for controversial new and expanded airports across the UK. The news comes as the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP) launches its report on the environmental effects of aircraft in flight.

Friends of the Earth research, based on the Government's own data, shows how Ministers' airport expansion plans mean that climate change emissions from the UK aviation industry will soar by 350% from 1990 to 2030. To make up for this, cuts of at least a fifth (20%) will be needed from the rest of British businesses, households and road transport. [1]

Despite the Prime Minister's call for substantial reductions in climate changing emissions by 2050 [2] the Government has failed to identify the consequences for climate change of its proposed aviation expansion - now revealed by Friends of the Earth - in its current consultation on the future of air transport, due to end on 30th November. Ministers have not proposed any actions to respond to the challenge.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) pollution is one of the main causes of dangerous climate change and aviation is the fastest growing source. The Government has forecast that the CO2 from aircraft using UK airports is expected to rise to 70-80 million tonnes by 2030 [3]. In 1990, the year used for calculating reductions under the Kyoto Protocol, emissions were 17 million tonnes; in 2000 they were 35 million tonnes. By contrast, RCEP has said that the UK's total emissions of CO2 must fall by at least 60% by 2050 (from 1990 levels) - a target referred to by the Prime Minister. Growth in airports and air travel will make it even harder for the UK to meet this target and the pressure of doing so will fall on other parts of the economy.

The Government's data shows that if the UK is to stay on track to meet the target of a 60% cut, emissions from industry, people's homes and road transport would have to fall by an extra 53-65 million tonnes, if aviation emissions increase as forecast by the Government [4]. This is a rise of 20 per cent - or about two and half times the savings achieved by higher fuel taxes, the climate change levy on high energy users in industry and Government support for renewable energy combined. The Government's air transport consultation documents make no reference to this as an issue of great importance for many other sectors because of the additional costs that will be imposed on them.

Paul de Zylva, aviation campaigner at Friends of the Earth said:

"The UK's reputation for action on dangerous climate change will be dealt a hammer blow if Ministers go ahead with their airport expansion plans. To make up for the dramatic increase in climate changing gases from civil aviation, British businesses and householders will have to cut their energy use and pollution even more.

"The aviation industry pays no tax on the fuel it uses and is now the fastest growing cause of climate change. Why should the rest of British business and society have to pay the penalty, just so that airlines and airports can continue to grow while ignoring their environmental responsibilities? This is part of the price of Ministers' plane crazy obsession with airport expansion. Rather than add to the problem, the Government should act to ensure that the aviation industry faces up to climate change and the other problems it causes."

Notes

[1] Government forecasts suggest that aviation emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, are likely to rise to 70-80 million tonnes by the year 2030. Emissions from domestic flights are included within the Kyoto Protocol international agreement on climate change, but emissions from international flights are not. This is likely to change. Countries are beginning to negotiate a successor agreement to Kyoto and it is probable that all emissions from aviation will be included within it.

No target yet exists for UK emissions of carbon dioxide for 2030. Yet the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP) has said that the UK's CO2 emissions should fall by 60 per cent from 1990 levels by the year 2050. This implies an annual reduction of over 1.5 per cent - this is equal to a 45 per reduction by 2030.

On the assumption that all aviation emissions will be included within a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol, Friends of the Earth has calculated the effect that the Government's forecast increase in CO2 emissions from air travel will have on the scale of reduction required from other sectors - in order to cut total emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 and keep Britain on track to meeting the Royal Commission's 60% target.

• Government figures show that total UK CO2 emissions in 1990 were 624 million tonnes of CO2.
• Aviation was responsible for almost 17 million tonnes of this total.
• For emissions to fall by 45 per cent by 2030, the UK total of CO2 emissions would have to fall to only 339 million tonnes.
• But meanwhile, the Government's forecast growth in aviation will lead to aviation industry emissions rising to between 70-80 million tonnes of CO2.
• The growth in aviation emissions from 1990 to 2030 would be 53-63 million tonnes.
• For Britain to stay on track to meet the Royal Commission's target, emission cuts from other sectors of business and society would have to increase by this amount.
• This would increase the necessary cut from these sectors from 285 million tonnes to 339-348 million tonnes - an increase of between 19 and 22 per cent.

It is important to note that these calculations only apply to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). Yet aviation is also responsible for emissions of other climate changing pollutants including nitrogen oxides (NOx) and water vapour (H2O). These are particularly damaging to our climate because they are emitted at high altitudes and are also likely to increase in total, so the necessary cut in emissions from other sectors may need to be higher than suggested above.

[2] Speeches by Tony Blair include the following on climate change:
- AAccording to the best climate change models, if we want to halt the process of global warming, we would need to cut global CO2 emissions by 60% or more. So Kyoto was only a start.@ 'The environment: the next steps', 6th March 2001
- "The greatest threat to our environment today is climate change.If there is one immediate issue that threatens global disaster, it is the changes in our atmosphere.If we are to continue to grow, we must reduce the impact of growth on the environment. Some commentators estimate that we'll need a tenfold increase in the efficiency with which we use resources by 2050 only to stand still.@ >Richer and greener' speech to the CBI / Green Alliance, 24th October 2000

[3] The Government has forecast that with its airport expansion the carbon dioxide pollution from aircraft using UK airports is expected to rise to 79,770 tonnes by 2030 (Halcrow Technical Note 'Year 2000 CO2 Forecasts' 6th October 2002)

[4] See DETR (2000) 'Climate Change: the UK programme'.

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