Archived press release

NIREX delay will save 282 million

21 January 1997

Taxpayers could save 282 million if the Government decides against giving Nirex permission to build its controversial rock laboratory according to a new study published today (21/1/97). The study, compiled by two of the UK's leading independent experts on nuclear economics and commissioned by Friends of the Earth, has been submitted today to John Gummer, Secretary of State for the Environment [1][2].

The study analysed whether, using 'value for money' criteria, it is desirable for Nirex to go ahead immediately with construction of the Rock Characterisation Facility (RCF) or conduct ten more years of surface-based research. In each case there are a range of outcomes from success (ie Nirex get it right and go on to build a nuclear waste repository) to failure(Nirex have to abandon the site). Using the evidence from the RCF public inquiry, the authors assigned a range of probabilities to each option and outcome and used Nirex's cost data.

The economic model conducted a sensitivity analysis of all options, probabilities and costs. Overall, it found that there is a net advantage to the taxpayer of 282 million from delay. In other words: when all possible outcomes and costs/risks are considered, the best possible economic decision is to delay and do more research before considering an RCF.

While the report accepts that Nirex may be successful if given the immediate go-ahead,there are high costs and risks associated with the this option, particularly in the light of revelations that Nirex scientists themselves doubt the suitability of the site. Costs to the taxpayer could be as high as 910 million if Nirex had to abandon the site once it had commenced construction of the repository. The net advantage of the delay is equivalent to 20 per cent of the capital cost of a repository sunk to successful conclusion.

Dr Patrick Green, Friends of the Earth's Senior Nuclear Campaigner said;

"The new study clearly shows that there is an economic, as a well as scientific,penalty from giving Nirex the go-ahead. The best decision John Gummer could make is to delay the Nirex project, allowing more time for research and saving taxpayers money."

NOTES TO EDITORS:

[1] Economic Assessment of the Timing of the Nirex Deep Repository, by Mike Sadnicki and Gordon MacKerron, Science Policy Research Unit, Sussex University, January 1997
[2] The study was commissioned jointly by Friends of the Earth and COLA, the Consortium of Local Authorities. Mr MacKerron acts as a regular advisor to the House of Commons Trade and Industry Select Committee on nuclear economics.

[3] Gordon MacKerron at the Science Policy Research Unit

[4] Mike Sadnicki

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Published by Friends of the Earth Trust