Archived press release

Climate change - £6.50 loaf will leave millions hungry in the UK

28 October 2009

£6.50 for a loaf of bread, £7 for a box of cornflakes and £18 for a pint of beer - these are the eye watering prices we could face in 2030 unless urgent action is taken to prevent dangerous climate change.

The figures were published today by Friends of the Earth, 40 days before vital UN climate talks kick off in Copenhagen.

The price of staple foods is set to rocket four and a half times above normal inflation because the changing climate will put extra stress on land and resources around the world, exacerbating the existing food crisis. Yields of crops like wheat, rice and maize will fall and patterns of trade and consumption will be affected.

Spiralling costs of basics like bread, rice and pasta will mean that many million more people will struggle to buy enough food to keep healthy.

The figures have been produced by Ray Hammond, a leading expert in predicting future social and economic trends and Visiting Lecturer at the University of Oxford's Institute for the Future of Humanity. He modeled the future prices of consumer foodstuffs for Friends of the Earth using previous price hikes recorded by the World Bank and projections by the International Food Policy Research Institute.

Projected prices of other staple foods in 2030 include:

• £6.48 for a 800g loaf of white bread (now 72p, would be £1.44 with normal inflation)
• £17.91 for a 1 litre corn oil (now £1.99, would be £3.98 with normal inflation)
• £15.21 for 1 kg of basmati rice (now £1.69, would be £3.38 with normal inflation)
• £7.20 for 500g corn flakes (now 78p, would be £1.56 with normal inflation)
• £16.02 for 24 Weetabix-style biscuits (now £1.78, would be £3.56 with normal inflation)
• £18.45 for a pint of Pilsner lager (now £2.05, would be £4.05 with normal inflation)

As pressure mounts ahead of the United Nations climate change talks in Copenhagen, the report is a reminder that global warming will hit ordinary Britons hard, as well as causing storms, droughts, famine and floods that will affect the developing world.

In his report, Hammond echoes Friends of the Earth's call for a strong and fair agreement in Copenhagen, in which rich countries promise to cut their emissions by at least 40 per cent by 2020 without carbon offsetting, and pledge sufficient public funds to enable poor nations to develop cleanly and adapt to the impacts of climate change. He also advises urgent political action to address the underlying causes of the food crisis.

Ray Hammond said:

"Our global food production is already precarious - and climate change threatens to tip it into disaster.

"£6.50 for a loaf of bread, £7 for a bag of pasta and £18 for a pint of lager - this is what the future looks like in Britain if we don't prevent dangerous climate change.

"Rich countries must take strong and decisive action to propel us towards a strong and fair agreement in Copenhagen in December - otherwise many people in the UK will face a Dickensian struggle to afford food and millions of people in the developing world will be condemned to early deaths."

Friends of the Earth Head of Climate Mike Childs said:

"This vision of life in 2030 shows that life with climate change won't be pretty, it'll be pricey - the cost of simple foods like bread and rice will rocket and millions more people will go hungry here in the UK alone.

"There is still time to avert this nightmare scenario. At the UN climate talks in Copenhagen in just 40 days, rich countries must show leadership by stumping up hard cash for developing countries to grow cleanly and adapt to the effects of climate change already putting millions of lives at risk.

"Rich nations must also slash their emissions first and fast - cutting them by at least 40 per cent by 2020, without offsetting, to get us on the road to a strong and fair climate agreement which will safeguard the future of our planet and everyone on it."

"The root causes of the food crisis must also be tackled. We need urgent political action to create fair global food supplies and make farming planet-friendly - from field to fork our food currently creates up to half of all greenhouse gas emissions."

Friends of the Earth is demanding that the Government changes its approach to climate change with its Demand Climate Change campaign. The green campaign group is asking everyone to sign its international petition to world leaders for a strong and fair climate dealat http://www.demandclimatechange.org/.

ENDS

Notes to Editors
1. See full report
2. Under normal circumstances without the effects of climate change on agriculture, inflation would lead to a doubling of prices over a twenty year period.
3. Ray Hammond is a British futurologist who has written, lectured and broadcast about how future trends will affect society and business for over 25 years. He is a visiting lecturer at the Institute for the Future of Humanity, the University of Oxford and a visiting lecturer at London's Cass Business School. www.rayhammond.com
4. Friends of the Earth's Demand Climate Change campaign is calling for:
- The Government to abandon its promotion of carbon offsetting - a con which means avoiding real action at home through dodgy accounting - and pledge to cut emissions by at least 40 per cent by 2020 at home;
- Rich countries to acknowledge their legal and moral responsibility to provide new money for developing countries, distributed through the UN, so that they can grow cleanly and adapt to the effects of climate change which are already putting millions of lives at risk;
- Proposals to be scrapped which would allow rich countries to buy chunks of forest whilst continuing to pump out emissions: an approach which won't solve climate change or halt deforestation.
5. Friends of the Earth's Food Chain campaign aims to change the way that meat and dairy is produced in the UK. The campaign is calling for the Government to stop using taxpayers money to fund big business-led factory farms, and instead support homegrown animal feeds and low-impact meat and dairy production.
6. Friends of the Earth is part of Stop Climate Chaos Coalition, the UK's largest group of people dedicated to action on climate change and limiting its impact on the world's poorest communities. The coalition's supporter base of more than 11 million people spans over 100 organisations, from environment and development charities to unions, faith, community and women's groups. Together we demand practical action by the UK to keep temperatures well below an average 2 degree rise. For further information, visit www.stopclimatechaos.org.

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Published by Friends of the Earth Trust